Thursday 9 September 2010

"Oh say can you see, by the nights early dawn……" Week 1 Preview

With the star spangled, firework laden kick off of the CNFLE II season mere hours away, it’s time to turn our attention to the picks, predictions and weekly matchups for the opening round of fixtures.

With so much at stake for all twelve coaches, the pressure gauge has been turned up a notch or three to maximum and the increased temperature is starting to take its toll on some, as the fine tuning of the squad and starting line-ups seemingly change by the hour.

Do not doubt that the belief remains in the hearts of all twelve Coaches honest and true, and the target is now in clear view, but come the bleeping repetition of the Tuesday morning alarm, half of the deadly dozen will still be dreaming of running the table, but the other half, well, it’s back to the drawing board to assess  the wreckage and understand where the best laid plans went awry.

Hall of Fame reporters Bob Bernstein and Carl Woodward take a close up look at each of the 6 week one matches and give their verdict on where each match could be won, or lost.

With the first three fixtures for each team being inter divisional battles it’s imperative to get off to a flyer. Any team that comes out of the first bout of division rivalry with a great big egg in the win column can pretty much say goodbye to their hopes of a playoff spot. Whatever it takes to put up a ‘W’ is the order of the day.

 
Division 1

Bryants Baptists v Super Swedes.

Week one pits together two of the pre season favourites head to head.

The Swedes certainly have the edge in the QB department as Romo is a proven fantasy performer whereas Kolb’s NFL debut could go either way. Although the Dallas O line may struggle Romo should be good for a few points more.
Edge: Swedes

MJD is also the star turn out of the four backfield options, but the tandem of Mendenhall and Charles have decent matchups this week in comparison with Shonn Greene who unfortunately for him takes on the Ravens touted run D. We feel this give the Baptist’s a clear advantage.
Edge : Baptists

Carolina’s Steve Smith and Marques Colston have the edge over Roddy White, who will find it tough sledding against the Steelers pro bowl DB’s, and Crabtree but Floyd could be a breakout candidate this week for the Swedes as the Chiefs may not be able to cope with the aerial bombardment of the Chargers. ‘Halle’ Berrian may get a couple of sightings but won’t play a significant part in proceedings.
Edge : Baptists.

Finley has a battle on his hands against the Eagles D, whereas Winslow could put up big numbers against the Browns. Against all reason, we like the Winslow boy in this matchup.
Edge : Swedes

The Baptist’s Eagles kicker and Defence square up against the much vaunted Packer D so will have it tough. The Swedes took Bironas who is often good for heavy scores, but the matchup against the Raiders suggests he will collect points this week in single digits. The improving Bengals D take on New England who will be keen to make amends for last year’s dismal campaign.
Edge : Baptists.

The Baptists hopes rest squarely in the City of Brotherly love. If the Eagles ‘fly Eagles fly on the road to vic-tor-ree’ then the Baptists take it, if not then the Swedes will be in the money, money, money.
Verdict: Swedes by 3

 
Tim Riggins Bench Warmers v Royal with TD’s

Both teams will be eager to get off to a flying start, especially with the two other divisional opponents looking strong in the pre season.

Both QB’s will post big numbers over the course of the season, however question marks still remain regarding the calibre of the receiving corps for both the Chargers and the Bears. This is such an even matchup and the opponents for both QB’s are both expected to capitulate following the initial passing onslaught.  We take ‘Cry me a’ Rivers by a teardrop.
Edge : Royale.

Two perennial heavyweights in of the backfield division, in Jackson and Rice represent Royale, Riggins go with a goal line specialist and a part time rookie. This one’s a no-brainer.
Edge : Royale

Flip that switch! A wideout set that includes Reggie Wayne and Andre Johnson could have Pollyanna hobbling in the slot and it would still pretty much beat anyone else, let alone contain Pittsburgh vet Hines Ward as the third receiver. Although Bowe, Sims- Walker and Meachem are decent options and will win their fair share of matchups, this is also a no contest.
Edge : Riggins


A veteran tight end supplied by a young buck, or a young buck fed by the veteran quarterback? We take the veteran tight end in Gonzo, although Shiancoe may be the only receiving target fit enough to take the field in Minnesota before much longer.
Edge : Riggins

Longwell will always score points, especially in a Dome, and the Chargers are up against one of their not so mighty divisional opponents in the Chiefs so should rack up a decent points haul. Buffalo is a difficult place to kick at the best of time and Donovan will want to put on good show in his Redskins debut especially against da Pokes.
Edge : Riggins

In another week this fixture would be turned on it’s head, but given the matchups that the Riggins boys have it is difficult to bet against them.
Verdict: Riggins by 7

 
Division 2
 
Yoda from Wales v Ttttaylor


This week’s Fox televised matchup pits two of the strong favourite against each other. It may however have come too early in the season for Yoda as the week one fixtures have been kind to the Ttttaylor ttteam .
Even though Yoda play caller Shaub is up against playoff perennials in the Colts he will still garner an impressive haul. Ttttaylor have surprisingly opted to go with Lions Matt Stafford, a bold choice given his trials of last year but he should still score well in a team that will be passing a lot playing catch up every week.
Edge : Yoda.

Pre season surprise Foster will see most of the Houston action but his production will suffer if the Texans fall behind  against the Colts as Shaub will likely air it out. This matchup sees picks 1 & 2 in Peterson and Johnson go head to head and both will score heavily week in week out. The difference maker will be Cedric Benson who will be the focal point of the Bengals run first offence.
Edge : Ttttaylor.

Brandon Marshall headlines a receiving trio for Yoda that looks a little thin without Jackson in the mix. Desean Jackson has been Kolb’s favourite target in previous outings, Knox has a dream matchup against the Lions in the first game of Martz refined Bears offence, and big things are expected of Mike Wallace, perhaps though not this week.
Edge : Ttttaylor

Again, the best two performers in their category are facing up against each other in this fixture. Clark opposes the Texans, Gates takes on the Chiefs. We take Gates in this one as he is the primary receiver in the Chargers armoury until they sort out their wideout situation.
Edge : Yoda.


In normal circumstances the Jets would be a shoo in for the edge in a defensive matchup, but they face a confident Ravens offence this week, whereas the Cards face an inexperienced and error ridden St Louis team who will spill the ball every which way to sundown. The Jets are however at home and it is still difficult to back against them producing the goods. Both kickers are of elite quality, but Kaeding will spend more time in Chiefs territory.
Edge : Ttttaylor (by  a whisker).

This matchup will be decided if Cutler or Rivers has one of their good days and whether Benson will outperform Greene as is expected. Otherwise this match will be close. Yoda must be worried about the receiving situation however.
Verdict : Ttttaylor by 10

It’s A Lottery v The Bone Rocks

Echoes of Division one abound in this fixture, as neither team will wish to lose ground with the remaining games in this division against Yoda & Ttttaylor. In fact if a week one game could ever be called a must win fixture, this could be it!

Believe it or not the matchup between Carson Palmer and Drew Brees went the way of Palmer in last year’s CNFLE. Can history repeat itself? Given the matchup, Palmer has a good chance as Brees will be trying to pick holes in a talented Vikings defence. Notwithstanding that only a fool would back against the Saints signal caller. You guessed it there is a lot of Carson love in this office. Call me that fool!
Edge : Bone

Much is expected of Frank Gore this season, and his partnership with Ronnie Brown will prove fruitful over the course of the season. The Lottery pairing of Grant and Addai should be no match for the Bone duo with Grants matchup against the Eagles looking particularly tough.
Edge : Bone

Will Austin be able to repeat last year’s Cowboy heroics or will he get frozen out as a result of Romo being chased around the backfield. Will Megatron get back to his productive highs now that Stafford has bedded in? Can Greg Jennings lay claim to being Rodgers favourite target again? Too many questions make this judgement on this category easy. The other wideouts will contribute little this week so its two against one. Edge : Bone

Witten against Davis is a great tight end matchup. Both are in the second tier in that position. Both are looking for a season that propels them into that top fantasy bracket. Romo will be needing the outlet more, and Davis plays for a run first team.
Edge : Lottery

Hartley with stack up the points, and the Pack will prove their worth over the season, but both have tough matchups this week. Janikowski  could do nothing or could get a bagfull against the Titans, but the clincher is the 49ers matchup against the Seahawks which is one that they have traditionally dominated. Edge : Bone
There are enough vagaries in this fixture to keep this one tight all the way through, although on paper the Bone should walk it. This one is a coupon buster!
Verdict : Bone by 10


Division 3

French Leader v Seventy Nine FC

A fast start is crucial for success in Division 3, as the pre-season punditry suggests that only one of these desperados will make it out of Dodge alive. Who that is, only time will tell, but rest assured it will be a dogfight to the bitter end.

There is not much to choose between either of the play callers in this match up as both teams first round picks face off in this match. Rodgers has the tougher time of it this week against an aggressive Eagles D, whereas Manning has usually performed well against a Houston team that gets two bites at the cherry every year without much success.
Edge : Niners

It’s the battle of the New Orleans backs in the running back division with both Pierre Thomas and Reggie (the bust) Bush on opposite sides of the hash marks. Thomas has the edge here as he is higher up the depth chart and a more consistent fantasy scorer. De Angelo Williams and Jahvid Best complete the picture. Whilst we know that Williams is capable but inconsistent, Best is a candidate for a sleeper of the year. Both are on the road, both are likely to be behind early on. We like Williams, but only just and not enough to compensate for Bush.
Edge : Niners

Boldin, Welker and Maclin make up the new French tricolour of purple, white and green and whilst they might not pose a deep play threat they will be targeted often enough to see off Cribbs, Garcon and Fitz.  I fear Cribbs and Garcon will only see occasional usage and Fitz to score but with low yards this week.
Edge : French

Will either of these Tight ends get any points? There is nothing to choose from between Cooley & Miller. Cooley shades it slightly because of the better matchup and being at home.
Edge : French

The Vikings will get burnt this week against the Saints so would start at a disadvantage in any case, but they match up against the Ravens this week who are a strong adversary. Gotkowski isn’t allowed to take field goals unless it’s less than 40 yards and a  4th and long situation and Feely will not benefit from the spectacular Kurt Warner show, so this one could go either way.
Edge : French

Although the quarterback and running back matchups seem to favour the Niners, this matchup will be won in the receiving game. Just how much will Josh Cribbs be used? If he becomes the focal point of the Browns new wild offense then he could be the steal of the season!
Verdict : French by 7


The Hairy Frog Disco v The Fear Factory

Disco confronts rock, rock beats scissors, scissor sisters go down well at the Disco. Whichever way you look at it, this is a grade ‘A’ grudge match to rival the Mods and Rockers, the Skins and Cowboys, Arsenal versus Tottenham, or Cheryl Cole and Danni Minogue. You pays your money and takes your choice. Will the Disco be first to get to the beat or can the Fear Factory put the willies up the Frogs.

After Frogs Coach Calum spent his second round pick on Brady, big things are expected from All American Tom, and not just escaping unharmed from a multi car collision. Favre is still listed as probable to start but has not been practising. Will he be able to pick up where he left off, or will the Factory’s own Saints D crush him like a bug on the windscreen?
Edge : Disco

Turner will struggle against a the Disco’s own stellar Steelers D. Beanie Wells may still be a bit part player in the Cards offense so there are question marks this week for the Disco in this department. Ryan Matthews is expected to scalp the Chiefs, and Moreno should post decent numbers against an average Jaguar run defence.
Edge : Factory.

A trio of solid WR options in 85, Driver and ‘Stevie’ Nicks represent the Disco for the first game, all should bag double figures with their respective matchups, although its rumoured that they would ‘rather jack than Fleetwood Mac’. The Moss Bros. headline as the factory’s primary outlet, and although Randy is not practicing in full at this time, rock legend Santana always puts up big numbers against the Cowboys, whilst Steve Smith (no, the other one!) will post good numbers for the Giants.
Edge : Factory

‘Tom’ Celek has put away the moustache gel and is ready for action. Look for a big game from him as Kolb is forced to look underneath against the marauding ‘Pack’. Can Daniels rebound from last year’s injury?
Edge : Frogs

Both D’s face off against key offensive performers for their own teams this week as the Saints try to give Brett the bum rush, and the Steelers will make Turner take an ‘Ike’. Vinatieris leg is not once what it was, and Lawrence ‘Fog on the’ Tynes is from the UK so will always miss when the pressure is on. Edge : Factory
Neither team can afford an ‘L’ on their record after this match, as it will put the pressure firmly on for the next round of divisional matches.
Verdict : Factory by 6

And there we have it for this week. Wins for the Super Swedes, Tim Riggins Bench Warmers, Ttttaylor, The Bone Rocks, French Leader and the Fear Factory. Back to the drawing board for the rest.
Disagree? Why not send over your predictions for this week to see who is the ‘King of the picks’? Scoring will be based on an overall percentage of correct picks, no worries if you miss a week here and there. Just for fun.

In addition, CNFLE II official bookmaker Vasco De Gama is currently offering the following odds on the eventual winner.


Ttttaylor - 4/5                                   
Super Swedes - 3/1                          
Yoda from Wales - 4/1                      
Bryants Baptists - 4/1                         
French Leader - 6/1                              
The Bone Rocks - 8/1                             
It’s a Lottery - 8/1                                 
Fear Factory - 8/1                                
Tim Riggins Bench Warmers - 10/1      
The Hairy Frog Disco - 10/1               
Royale with TD’s - 12/1                       
Seventy Niners FC - 12/1                   

Anyone wish to bet a couple of Carltons* on who might be the winner? (Please bet responsibly).
Good luck for the season gentlemen.

CW & BB

* A Carlton is the imaginary currency of the CNFLE II. Each Coach starts with an credit account of 10 Carltons that they can use over the course of the season on hypothetical wagers without damaging the ‘real life’ finances unduly.

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